Store olie- og gasselskaber har investeret 50 mia. dollars i fossile brændstofprojekter, der undergraver den globale indsats for at afværge en løbsk klimakrise, ifølge en rapport fra Carbon Tracker.
I rapporten konkluderer Carbon Tracker, at:
- The shift to a Paris-compliant world will require a dramatic change in behaviour from the ingrained growth model. Compared to the IEA’s central scenario (which incorporates the Paris INDCs, but is associated with 2.7ºC warming), 2019-2030 capex on new oil projects is 83% lower in a 1.6ºC scenario and 60% lower in a 1.7-1.8ºC scenario.
- Last year, all of the major oil companies sanctioned projects that fall outside a “well below 2 degrees” budget on cost grounds. These will not deliver adequate returns in a low-carbon world. Examples include Shell’s $13bn LNG Canada project and BP, Total, ExxonMobil and Equinor’s Zinia 2 project in Angola. We highlight $50bn of recently sanctioned projects across the oil and gas industry that fail the Paris alignment test by a margin.
- This includes the large European companies that are doing the most to reassure investors that they are responsive to climate concerns – BP, Shell, Total and Equinor.
- The majors also hold a number of projects targeting approval this year which don’t fit in a Paris-compliant world. Examples include Total’s assets in Uganda, and various projects in Brazil. Some have already been given a final investment decision, e.g. BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Equinor’s ACG project in Azerbaijan.
- No new oil sands projects fit within a Paris-compliant world. Despite this, ExxonMobil sanctioned the $2.6bn Aspen project last year – the first new oil sands project in 5 years. Indeed, only a handful fit within a business-as-usual world of missed climate targets; industry growth expectations look optimistic.
- Several US shale specialists have portfolios that are entirely out of the budget. Their relatively homogenous cost structures puts them in an “all or nothing” position – substantially all in if the world misses Paris commitments, but all out if temperatures are limited to “well below 2 degrees”.
- The oil and gas in projects that have already been sanctioned will take the world past 1.5ºC, assuming carbon capture and storage remains sub-scale.
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